TIFA Research on Friday, July 29, 2022, released an opinion poll that revealed the State House race would go down to the wire.
Even though the survey shows that Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga was ahead of UDA’s Dr William Ruto, the difference in popularity is less than 3 per cent, almost within the margin error of +/- 2.16.
The opinion poll gave Raila a 46.7 per cent popularity compared to Deputy President William Ruto’s 44.4 per cent.
If the survey is anything to go by, it means the country will have to go to the runoff to decide on who becomes the next President between Raila and DP Ruto.
The constitution requires that for a candidate to be declared duly elected president, he/she must garner 50 plus one per cent of all the votes cast.
In the event the threshold is not met, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is required to call for a run-off, between the top two candidates, with the one that gets the majority of the votes being declared the President.
Raila, Ruto popularity per region
And with just under two weeks before Kenyans go to the polls, we break down the popularity of the two leading presidential candidates in each of the 9 regions as surveyed by TIFA Research.
The survey was conducted between July 21 and July 26, 2022. The data were collected using face-to-face interviews at households with 2,056 respondents.
- Central Rift – Raila Odinga: 15%, William Ruto: 83%
- Coast – Raila Odinga: 57%, William Ruto: 37%
- Lower Eastern – Raila Odinga: 58%, William Ruto: 35%
- Mount Kenya – Raila Odinga: 27%, William Ruto: 66%
- Nairobi – Raila Odinga: 59%, William Ruto: 34%
- Northern – Raila Odinga: 36%, William Ruto: 31%
- Nyanza – Raila Odinga: 80%, William Ruto: 12%
- South Rift – Raila Odinga: 60%, William Ruto: 34%
- Western – Raila Odinga: 61%, William Ruto: 26%
