The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) says there is an 80-82% likelihood of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, with probabilities rising to 90-96% that the event will persist through the end of the year.
In a press release dated June 9, 2026, KMD said global forecasts indicate “the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in 2026, which could significantly influence weather patterns across the Country.”
Most models suggest the event will be at least moderate, and possibly strong, according to the statement signed by acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward M. Muriuki.
June-July-August weather forecast in Kenya
For the June-July-August season, KMD forecasts near-average to below-average rainfall over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, and Northwestern Kenya.
The Coast is expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.
Areas East of the Rift Valley including Nairobi, parts of the Southeastern lowlands near Nairobi, and high ground areas of Marsabit and Taita Taveta counties will see occasional cool and cloudy conditions with light rains.
Most of the Southeastern lowlands and Northeastern region are expected to be generally sunny and dry.
“Mean temperatures are forecasted to be warmer than average over most parts of the country,” KMD said.
Weatherman: Wetter conditions likely later in the year
KMD said El Niño is typically associated with depressed rainfall in western Kenya during June-August, while October-December usually brings increased rainfall over the entire country.
The department added that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event could develop later in 2026.
“The combined effects of El Niño and a positive IOD significantly influence rainfall patterns over Kenya potentially leading to enhanced rainfall during the October-November-December (OND) season,” the statement said.
KMD said it is monitoring both El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal, which modulates El Niño’s effect in Kenya. The IOD is currently neutral and most models indicate it will likely remain neutral in June 2026.
The department further said it will issue the national October-November-December 2026 seasonal forecast in late August or early September 2026. KMD said it continues to work with the National Disaster Operations Centre and other agencies to support preparedness and mitigation measures.
The public has been advised to stay informed through official weather updates and advisories.
