The October–December Short Rains season is officially underway, with rainfall expected across several parts of the country this week, the Kenya Meteorological Department has said.
In an update issued on October 5, 2026, the department said light to moderate rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, covering at least 47 counties.
The counties expected to receive rainfall include Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot.
The weatherman has however warned of isolated storms over parts of Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit, as well as Tana River and Kilifi, which may lead to flash floods.
According to the department, October marks the onset of the Short Rains over much of Kenya as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrates southwards across East Africa, bringing increased moisture and convection.
The duration and intensity of October rainfall will be determined by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and intraseasonal drivers such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and sub-tropical high-pressure systems.
The department has advised the public to stay updated on daily forecasts and take precautionary measures in flood-prone areas.
