It is exactly a week before Kenyans go to the polls to elect a new president that will serve the country for the next five years.
The presidential contest has already shaped into a two-horse-race, between Azimio’s Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza.
A latest opinion poll released on Tuesday, August 2, 2022, has placed the Azimio candidate ahead in the race with a 6-point gap against the DP.
In the poll that surveyed over 6,000 respondents, the former Prime Minister polled 47 per cent while DP Ruto had a preference of 41 per cent.
The Ipsos poll however shows that about 4 per cent of the Kenyans that participated in the survey conducted within the last week of July were still undecided.
“From this research, if Mr Odinga converts half of the undecided voters he will have a first-round win while if Mr Ruto will convert half of the undecided voters, he will force a re-run of the election,” said Samuel Muthoka, the director of research at Ipsos.
Aside from the undecided voters that might play a role in determining who becomes the next president, the poll also identified 11 counties whose outcome might tilt the race in favour of any of the two leading candidates.
Battleground counties
In the 11 counties, none of Raila nor Dr Ruto has a clear lead over each other.
The ODM leader has over 55 per cent support in 18 counties while UDA’s DP Ruto enjoys over 55 per cent support in 17 counties, leaving the 11 as battlegrounds.
“Depending on their (DP Ruto, Raila) activities in within the remaining 7 days, these counties will decide who wins the presidential election,” said the director of research at Ipsos.
Counties that have been listed as battlegrounds are Lamu, Nyamira, Wajir, Mombasa, Kitui, Samburu, Nakuru, Narok, Kiambu, Bungoma, Tana River and Marsabit.
