The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has released its outlook for the October-November-December 2026 short rains season.
In the outlook, the weatherman warned of above-average to enhanced rainfall across most of the country, driven by what it described as a very strong El Niño and an expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Risks of high rainfall in Kenya
Among the key potential risks flagged include likelihood of widespread flooding and flash floods, especially in low-lying and poorly drained urban areas as well as potential occurrence of landslides, mudslides and rock fall in some hilly terrain.
Additionally, road cutoff and disruption of some major routes and highways, bridges, power infrastructure, schools, and health facilities are also expected to be reported on some parts.
There is also a likelihood of water-borne and vector-borne related disease outbreaks.
The weatherman has also warned of potential large-scale displacement of the community along lower Tana basin, Wajir, Mandera, and Lamu and some of the lake Victoria basin among the highest-risk areas.
“For context: the 2023/24 El Niño displaced over 500,000 people across 43 counties. This season’s severity index is projected even higher,” the Kenya Red Cross Society said in reaction to the weatherman’s forecast.
“The window between now and the onset of the rains is critical,” it added.
However, the Kenya Red Cross said it is working with government and partners to ensure early warning translates into early action, before the rains arrive.
Which counties will receive above average rainfall between between October and December 2026
In the outlook for the October-November-December 2026 short rains season the weatherman noted that nearly all counties are expected to receive rainfall.
Counties likely to receive above average rainfall using the period are Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and much of West Pokot Samburu, and Marsabit counties.
