President William Ruto would face his toughest challenge from Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka in a head-to-head contest for the 2027 presidential election, a new survey by Mizani Africa shows.
According to the poll, Kalonzo leads Ruto by a narrow margin in a direct face-off. Kalonzo garners 51.3% against Ruto’s 47.7%, a difference of 3.6 percentage points, with only 1.0% of respondents undecided.
In the three other hypothetical pairings, President Ruto maintains a lead.
Against former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Ruto commands 54.0% compared to Gachagua’s 33.9%. The poll shows a large undecided bloc of 12.1% in that contest.
Ruto also holds an edge over former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i. In that pairing, Ruto polls at 53.3% against Matiang’i’s 41.0%, with 5.7% not sure, leaving a 12.3 percentage-point gap.
The closest contest after Kalonzo is against Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna. Ruto scores 50.1% while Sifuna attracts 45.8%, a margin of just 4.3 percentage points, pointing to a highly competitive race.
The survey presents four separate head-to-head scenarios.
Mizani Africa says the findings show a divided electorate, with Kalonzo emerging as the strongest challenger in a one-on-one race, while contests against Sifuna and Matiang’i remain competitive.
The opposition has not yet settled on who will fly its flag against Ruto in 2027. Some political analysts have suggested a Kalonzo-Sifuna ticket would be the strongest pairing.
